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Optimal SARS-CoV-2 vaccine allocation using real-time attack rate estimates in Rhode Island and Massachusetts
July 13, 2021
Tran TN-A, Wikle NB, Albert E, et al.
BMC Medicine
The authors used a validated mathematical model developed by Wikle et al. to evaluate vaccine distribution in Rhode Island and Massachusetts. The model used age-contact matrices as well as contact patterns to describe lockdown and post-lockdown mixing patterns. Vaccine availability as well as age-based strategies for vaccination were also taken into account. Allocating more than 75% of the vaccine supply for individuals over the age of 70 was the optimal strategy with fewer hospitalizations and fatalities. Prioritizing high-contact age groups (ages 20-49) also minimized fatalities in the short-term. In Rhode Island, a 28.3% population coverage strategy focused on the elderly has shown to reduce fatalities by 10%. The optimal strategy was a 25/75 distribution to the 20-49 and 70+ age groups. The model showed that Rhode Island would save 639-664 lives and Massachusetts would save 6278-6618 lives if with this vaccine distribution strategy. Moreover, vaccinating only seronegative individuals would result in 0.5-1% fewer hospitalizations and deaths. These findings highlight the need for real-time knowledge of seroprevalence as well as thorough population surveillance and testing to determine optimal vaccine allocation strategies.
Tran TN-A, Wikle NB, Albert E, et al. Optimal SARS-CoV-2 vaccine allocation using real-time attack-rate estimates in Rhode Island and Massachusetts. BMC Med 2021 191; 19: 1–14.
