Modeling COVID-19 scenarios for the Unites States

October 23, 2020

Reiner RC, Barber RM, Collins JK, et al.

Nature Medicine

This study modelled the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States using the SEIR (susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered) framework, focusing primarily on the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions and taking into account state level covariates such as pneumonia seasonality, mobility, testing rates, and face mask use. The authors evaluated the impact of three scenarios: (1) social distancing mandates being reinstated at the state level when there are more than 8 deaths per one million population (reference scenario); (2) universal mask wearing assuming 95% compliance with easing of social distancing measures; (3) universal mask wearing assuming 85% compliance with social distancing measures in place. The authors predict that in the reference scenario, 511,373 cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 (95% CI: 469,578 - 578,347) could be observed in the United States by February 28 , 2021. Compared to the reference scenario, 129,574 (95% CI: 85,284 - 170,867) or 95,814 (60,731–133,077) deaths could be averted between September 22, 2020 – February 28, 2021 in the presence of 95% mask wearing or 85% mask wearing, respectively.

Reiner RC, Barber RM, Collins JK, et al. Modeling COVID-19 scenarios for the United States. Nat Med. 2020;19. doi:10.1038/s41591-020-1132-9

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