Impact of mobility restriction in COVID-19 superspreading events using agent-based model

March 18, 2021

Lima LL, Atman APF.

PLOS One

Lima and Atman utilized an agent-based model to understand the role of COVID-19 superspreaders in an urban population with lessened mobility. Results demonstrated that lockdowns that lead to a 70%-90% mobility restriction flatten the infection curve. These restrictions proved significant in preventing an overburdened health system; with mobility restrictions in place, the percentage of population hospitalized in ICUs was 0.35% (90% restriction) compared with 2.87% (no restriction). While mask-wearing was also found to somewhat slow the spread of infection, results suggest that achieving large decreases in transmission requires combining this with additional non-pharmaceutical interventions. Simulations demonstrated that 13% of infected individuals were responsible for 77% of infections, and 70% of individuals did not further transmit infection.

Lima LL, Atman APF. Impact of mobility restriction in COVID-19 superspreading events using agent-based model. PLoS One 2021; 16: e0248708.

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