Estimating the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on diagnosis and survival of five cancers in Chile from 2020 to 2030: a simulation-based analysis

September 3, 2021

Ward ZJ, Walbaum M, Walbaum B, et al.

Lancet Oncology

This study in Chile evaluated the impact of delayed cancer diagnoses (cervix, breast, colorectal, stomach, and prostate cancer) on cancer outcomes. The microsimulation model showed that in 2020, compared with a no-COVID-19 scenario, 6,860 (95% UI 6,045–7,768) fewer diagnoses, reflecting a 32.1% reduction. Between 2022 and 2030, this can lead to 2,073 (95% UI -86–4310) excess cancer cases. Over the same timeframe, these delays in diagnoses are expected to result in an additional 3,542 (95% UI 2,236–4,816) deaths, most of which are projected to occur before 2025. Authors suggest collaboration between multiple stakeholders to improve surge capacity over the next few years.

Ward ZJ, Walbaum M, Walbaum B, et al. Estimating the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on diagnosis and survival of five cancers in Chile from 2020 to 2030: a simulation-based analysis. Lancet Oncol. 2021;22(10):1427-1437. doi:10.1016/s1470-2045(21)00426-5

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